The News Explained

The News Explained is a brief look back at the most consequential news from last week with a view to putting them in context. Published every Monday, The News Explained retells each of the selected stories, adds a little perspective, and gives directions as to where things may be headed.

These are no times for more distractions. Nations are grappling with a deadly virus that has no known cure or vaccination yet. Many people, confined to their homes for fear of infection or because of governments’ obligatory lockdowns, are seeing their incomes significantly reduced or gone for a month altogether. And yet, one country seems to be planning for war with another.

War with Iran may be Trump’s October surprise

In December last year, the United States military attacked the positions of paramilitary forces in Iraq known as the PMU, or Popular Mobilization Units. America’s justification for the strikes was that the PMU had attacked an Iraqi base where US troops were stationed with rockets, killing a US serviceman. Even though evidence showed that the rockets had been fired from territory notorious for Daesh attacks and hostile to the PMU, the US automatically took the attack as having been the work of the PMU — which it has described as “Iranian-backed” — and went on to engage in such aggressive activities that took the US and Iran to the brink of war.

As those events were just beginning to unfold, we warned here that America’s actions were a recipe for disaster. A few days after that warning, the US assassinated Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani, an act of aggression that made war look inevitable.

Now, just a little over three months since that episode, there are indications that the US may be about to set foot on the path of war with Iran once again. On Wednesday, April 1, 2020, US President Donald Trump — who had directed the US military to assassinate General Soleimani — claimed on Twitter that “Iran or its proxies” were planning to attack US targets in Iraq. “If this happens,” he said, “Iran will pay a very heavy price, indeed.”

US threatens Iran by citing baseless allegations involving Iraq

The United States is continuing threats against Iran even as the country battles the coronavirus pandemic despite Washington’s illegal sanctions.

That is precisely the kind of reckless posturing based on unsubstantiated assumptions that the US took in December last year. If that earlier episode ended without a war because Trump decided to stand down after Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Iraq, there are indications that the war-mongering now may be more purposefully planned and therefore more likely to lead to war: Trump has botched the response to America’s coronavirus epidemic, the US economy is in tailspin as a result of the outbreak, and a powerful contender who appeals to the same class of American voters as Trump is now all but certain to win the Democratic nomination for presidency. A war overseas could potentially get all of the American people to rally around him no matter how justified it would be to be at war at all.

Recognizing the potential for that abuse, the PMU is on alert for possible false-flag attacks, and Iran has promised to “teach a lesson” to those who start a war on it.

Zarif rejects Trump’s claim amid tensions in Iraq, says Iran won’t initiate any war

Foreign Minister Zarif of Iran dismisses Trump’s claim that Tehran is planning to launch an attack on US forces in Iraq.

Still, Iraq is relatively chaotic, and the coronavirus epidemic has only made things worse. Trump remains highly likely to exploit the situation, and everyone needs to stay alert.

Meanwhile, NATO has agreed to a request by the Iraqi government to increase its activities in Iraq. (That request was made in an attempt to limit the US’s presence in the Arab country. But NATO itself is immensely under the influence of the US.) That could potentially drag NATO to any standoff. And the US has deployed Patriot missile systems to undisclosed locations in Iraq — another sign that it is bracing for Iranian reprisal strikes like the ones that came in January after the assassination of General Soleimani.

The picture is grim, and the likelihood of war is real not because America is provoking one as it did in January (it hasn’t as of yet); it is real because the US’s commander-in-chief, unthinking of or impervious to the bigger picture, may desperately need to win a second term.

Stay informed!

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