Brexit will probably lead to domino effect : Analyst

Press TV has interviewed Gearóid Ó Colmáin, a political analyst in Paris, about founding members of the European Union holding a crisis summit on the future of the troubled union following Britain’s vote to leave the 28-nation bloc.

A rough transcription of the interview appears below.

Press TV: So here we are, the EU members, the founding members are meeting and they are going to be talking about I guess a transition but is it uncharted territory for them and I am reflecting on their statement where they said there was no Plan B were Britain to leave the EU?

Ó Colmáin: It is certainly unprecedented. I think there are few major problems that would be encountered in the months ahead if Britain does leave. It is not quite clear that Britain will leave. There could be destabilization of British economy; there could be other problems ahead.

There is a border between the European Union now and the United Kingdom - that is the northern Irish border. Now that is going to cause a lot of difficulty for the Irish authorities because if Britain is cracking down on immigration, then that border will have to be controlled and that would disrupt commerce in Ireland and it could also disrupt the integration process of the North with the South in Ireland where now there is an open border. So these are major technical issues to get through.

I think the Brexit vote is a good thing from the point of view of democracy. It is the British people who have decided they want to leave. It does send a clear message to the European Union that nation states are not going to submit to democratic authority. It is something that will probably lead to domino effect or the countries like Hungary are already getting prepared to leave, the major movement in Austria to leave as well. France of course has voted against the European constitution and that was overturned.

We should bear in mind that the European Union generally has contempt for the democratic mandate of nation states. We saw that with the European Union constitution. The Irish voted against it, the French voted against it and yet it was imposed.

They could for example try a re-election in Britain if for example they were to coerce the population and start talking about the catastrophic changes that have to be made, they might force the British to vote again but it is hard to know at this stage where this would go but it is a good thing from the point of view of a weakening imperialism. It certainly does weaken the US project which was to create European Union in the first place. We should bear in mind the European Union is a creation of the United States and it was about basically using a bloc of states in Europe against Russia.

So this might ease tensions with Russia, it might also improve situation in the Middle East if Boris Johnson is elected as Prime Minister because he has indicated that he is more in favor of Bashar al-Assad than the terrorists currently being supported by Cameron’s regime.

So perhaps Johnson might tone down British imperialism in the Middle East, that remains to be seen, but he is certainly talking steps in the right direction in coming out in the media and saying that he thinks that Bashar al-Assad is better than the opposition.

So these are factors that will be interesting to see in the months ahead but I do not think the European Union is prepared to accept this decision and the United States of course could indulge in all kinds of dirty tricks, Paul Craig Roberts has mentioned that they could decide ... and Soros for example, could decide to attack the currency. If you were to attack the British pound that would create economic chaos, it is hard to know but I doubt very much if this is going to be a smooth transition for the United Kingdom but nevertheless I think it is a victory for the British people.

British people voted to get out of the European Union and it does send a strong message. So it is a good thing in that sense but whether it will change the geopolitics of the United States and Europe that is another question.

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