Three-fourths of economists predict US recession by 2021: survey

A survey of an influential panel of economists has revealed that three-fourths of experts believe the United States will enter a recession by 2021.

The economic leadership and research group National Association of Business Economics (NABE) published the survey of its 281-member panel on Monday.

Nearly half of the questioned NABE panel believed the economy would begin to retract as soon as 2020. Another 10 percent, however, estimated that a recession could even begin as soon as later this year.

One-fourth of the panel said the next recession would start in 2021, marking a total of 77 percent of panelists believing a recession would hit in the next two years.

Another 11 percent believed an economic slowdown would start after 2021 and 13 percent declined to predict an upcoming recession.

Numerous groups and economic experts have recently expressed concern over a possible upcoming recession.

Last month, a monthly poll of economists conducted by The Wall Street Journal found a 25 percent chance of a recession within the next 12 months, the highest level since October 2011 and up from just 13 percent last year.

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Policy makers believe that worsening economic turmoil in Europe and China could be major factor in bringing the US economy to a slowdown in the near future, potentially having a profound influence on voter concerns in the 2020 presidential election.

The US last suffered a large economic meltdown nearly over a decade ago, heavily affecting the lives and households of millions of ordinary Americans, to the extent of having a negative impact on life expectancy, according to analysts.

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UK-based author Chris Bambery says the declining life expectancy rates in the US and Britain is rooted in the 2008 financial crash which led to recession in these countries.

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