US not to intervene in Saudi power struggle: Analyst

Press TV has conducted an interview with Brian Downing, a political commentator from Washington DC, to discuss the power-sharing challenges within the Saudi royal family.

The following is a rough transcription of the interview.

Press TV:  So the rumblings of discontent are being heard within the Royal family itself. What is the reason behind this power struggle and the unhappiness?

Downing: I think there are two main reasons. First and foremost, I think is the health of the current king. He’s 79 years old. He’s said to be suffering from dementia possibly Alzheimer’s.

This relates to the second major reason and that is the policies of one of his appointees - his son - I believe as defense minister who has embarked on a war in Yemen against the Houthis, which is becoming very long dragged out. And it’s become sort of a human rights disaster for Saudi Arabia as they keep bombing the wrong targets and the interdiction of supplies is causing a humanitarian disaster there.

It also comes to the time when Saudi Arabia is spending a heck of a lot of money. They are bankrolling the Egyptian government, they are subsidizing the Lebanese military to some extent, they are fighting the war in Yemen, they are also funding the war in Syria, they are funding the insurgencies here and there around the world and holding up through governments, they are funding Salafi schools throughout the Middle East.

And this out of time when the price of oil has collapsed in the last year from, I don’t know, about upper 90 dollars stands about 50, I’m using American Oklahoma Standards here.

The Saudis need oil to be about 100 dollars a barrel to break even with their expenses, they’re running into deficits. The IMF has been warning about this for several years. They’re going to have to cut some budgets.

Now, what we’re seeing is discontent in a very very small elite, the sons of Ibn Saud, the old warrior king of 1940s to early 1950s. We are seeing the Sudairi clique trying to keep power within that clique.  And I’m not really seeing any break away towards democracy. It has said that this princes favor for participation. However, what we may see is outdoor prices. There are some 5,000 perhaps 15,000 princes in the Saudi royal family.

They are not utterly important, but there’s a huge number of them. And you may see them demanding more participation. They’re seeing this crack up into the top. And they want to grab a little influence expanding the power structure of Saudi Arabia. Once they do that we could be seeing some real shake-up in that country. Especially, of some of these younger princes, the grandsons, the part of that 5,000, feel that they can’t win unless they start going out to the Saudi public and getting support from this Saudi public. That would become a big big problem for the clique.

Press TV: You’re actually ruling out the possibility and the prospect of democracy happening in the Saudi kingdom, but then, what do you think, because Saudi Arabia is one of its oldest allies in the Middle East region, what is at stake for the United States and how will the United States actually pursue the changes happening within the royal family?

Downing: I think the United States would welcome a broadening of political participation in Saudi Arabia. I think the Saudis felt that the United States would prop them up if there were some sort of danger. Well, we saw that the United States did not intervene to help Mubarak a few years ago in Egypt. And the Saudis became ... leave it out that.

They were deeply upset. They started moving towards closer to Russia and China and other countries to punish the United States. The United States is not going to intervene to prop up the Sudairi Seven, the handful of Saudi princes. It’s just what is going to happen. 

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