IMF revises up its 2024 economic growth forecast for Iran

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for Iran in 2024 amid signs the country is becoming increasingly immune to the economic impacts of US sanctions.

In its latest World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, the IMF forecasted that Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.7% this year, up from a previous estimate of 3.3% announced in July.

That comes as IMF’s estimates show that Iran’s economy grew by 5% in 2023.

The forecasts showed that inflation in Iran will decline to 31.7% in 2024 from 40.7% last year 2023 while unemployment will drop to 8% this year from 8.1% in 2023.

The IMF said that Iran’s current account balance will be 2.9% of its GDP this year, slightly up from 2.8 last year.

The figures are the latest sign that Iran’s economy has actually recovered from the impacts of US sanctions imposed in 2018 which have mainly targeted the country’s oil exports and its access to the dollar-based banking services in the world.

Iran has been reporting record oil exports in recent months despite the US bans which impose major penalties on buyers with interests in the US economy.

The IMF said that the 2024 global GDP growth will be unchanged from the 3.2% projected in July and one percentage point below last year.

However, the lender dialed back its global growth expectation for 2025 from 3.3% in July to 3.2% in its latest report.

IMF forecasts showed that the US economy will expand by 2.8% in 2024 and by 2.2% next year while China’s GDP will grow by 4.8% this year and by 4.5% in 2025.

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