The News Explained

The News Explained is a brief look back at the most consequential news from last week with a view to putting them in context. Published every Monday, The News Explained retells each of the selected stories, adds a little perspective, and gives directions as to where things may be headed.

The week ending March 1, 2020 saw Turkey declaring war on Syria. We have also been reporting the US Democratic primary elections and the signing of a deal between America and the Afghan Taliban.

[1]

Turkey declares offensive against Syrian government

The conflict we have been fearing may now be here. In Syria’s northwestern Idlib Province, Turkey seems to be pushing to gain a permanent foothold, invoking a deal with Russia that never provided for such presence.

On Thursday, February 27, 2020, Russian sources announced that Syrian and Russian aircraft had been coming under ground fire from Turkish forces and Syrian militants in Idlib. The Turks and the militants were using portable air defense systems to fire at the aircraft, according to the Russian sources, which also said such fire would force the Syrian and Russian air forces to take countermeasures.

Turkish military firing at Russian, Syrian military planes in Idlib: Military source

Turkish forces and Takfiri militants are reportedly using shoulder-fired missiles to hit Russian and Syrian aircraft in Syria’s Idlib.

That same day, 34 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib. While Moscow announced that the soldiers had been deployed alongside militants and “shouldn’t have been there,” it said they had been killed in Syrian artillery fire and not in Russian aerial bombing.

Russia says Turkish troops killed among terrorists, warns against op

A senior Russian lawmaker warns that a full-scale Turkish military operation in Syria will end badly for Ankara.

Turkey then reportedly used drones to hit Syrian forces in return. Turkey had already targeted Syrian forces in Idlib, killing unconfirmed numbers. Then, on Sunday, March 1, 2020, Turkey declared a major offensive against — effectively war on — the Syrian government, which, for its part, announced that it would be closing Syrian airspace in the northwest of the country and target any hostile aircraft that intruded.

Syria closes northwestern airspace, downs 3 Turkish drone

Syria shuts its airspace over the country

Since August last year, the Syrian army has been advancing in Idlib, where the largest concentration of anti-government militants remains in Syria. Turkey, a patron of those militants, struck a deal with Russia, an ally of the Syrian government, back in 2018, when another major offensive was due to take place in Idlib. That deal, known as the Sochi agreement, allowed Turkey to man a number of observation posts in Idlib, but it did not authorize Ankara to deploy heavily or permanently to Syrian territory, let alone attack Syrian forces.

Nevertheless, Turkey has been invoking that deal to claim that its military activities in Syria are justified. Russia, which has been providing air cover for the advancing Syrian army forces, has disputed the Turkish claim but seems to have been erring on the side of caution for the time being.

We cannot guarantee safety of your planes over Syria: Russia to Turkey

The Russian Defense Ministry has warned Turkey that it cannot

While the skirmishes between the Syrian and Turkish militaries are spiking, it remains to be seen whether Ankara is willing to risk an all-out war with Syria, or Russia and Iran — another Syrian government ally and peace guarantor for Syria. Russia and Iran have military advisers on the ground in Syria, and any Turkish aggression that claims Russian and Iranian lives could prove to be game-changing. One Turkish aerial attack that downed a Russian Su-24 and led to the death of one of its two pilots in Syria in 2015 saw Turkey execute a strategic maneuver out of the bosom of the West and volunteer to work with Russia and Iran at the time. Ankara after the attack abruptly joined a peace initiative for Syria with the two Syrian allies within the same framework that later produced the Sochi agreement and that continues to this day.

[2]

Joe Biden regains edge

On Sunday, March 1, 2020, Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the fourth Democratic primary elections in the United States, namely in South Carolina, regaining some of his competitiveness after having badly lost the first three primaries in a row.

Biden rolls to big projected South Carolina win, buoyed by black voter support

An outpouring of black voter support propelled Joe Biden to a convincing projected victory in South Carolina

Mr. Biden had been the front-running Democratic candidate in national polls before he suffered the repeated losses in the primary elections in the states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Another candidate, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, had won practically all of those three elections, emerging as a serious contender for the Democratic nomination and diminishing Mr. Biden’s chances. But Mr. Biden managed to win the support of an influential black Senator — and of black voters — in South Carolina. Mr. Sanders finished a distant second. And another rival, former mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg, dropped out of the race.

While other candidates remain, the results of the South Carolina primary essentially turn the Democratic field into a warzone between Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders, who is viewed by the bulk of Democratic voters as a radical ideologist. Mr. Biden, on the other hand, is believed to possess the qualities needed to unite Democratic and at least some undecided voters to beat President Donald Trump.

Still, the primaries do not reveal definitive trajectories, as each candidate has varying levels of support in different states. Besides, Mr. Sanders as of yet retains the highest number of delegate votes needed to secure the Democratic nomination, namely 58 delegates, versus Mr. Biden’s 50.

The most important date on the Democratic calendar is meanwhile arriving on Tuesday, the single day — known as Super Tuesday — when 14 states will be holding primary elections.

[3]

‘There is no doubt we have won the war:’ Taliban sign deal with US

Almost two decades after the US first attempted to eradicate the Taliban in Afghanistan, America has finally agreed to withdraw forces from the country under a deal signed with the Taliban on Saturday, February 29, 2020.

After 19 years of war, US signs deal with Taliban for troop withdrawal

An agreement between the US and the Taliban in Qatar sets the stage for end of nearly two decades of war in Afghanistan.

The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, shortly after terrorist attacks targeted the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York, killing nearly 3,000 people in what became known as the 9/11 attacks. America claimed that the then-Taliban regime in Afghanistan was harboring al-Qaeda, the terrorist group held responsible for the attacks.

Under the deal signed on Saturday, the Taliban have agreed to sever ties with al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups and sit down for peace talks with the Afghan government, which had, curiously enough, not been a party to the negotiations that led to the agreement. In return, Washington will start a phased withdrawal of troops.

But the Kabul government has refused to commit to the deal, effectively rejecting it. Another major stakeholder, Iran, has also explicitly rejected the deal.

Iran calls for inter-Afghan peace deal, rejects US agreement

Iran says a so-called peace deal between the Taliban and the US is an attempt by Washington to justify its illegal presence in Afghanistan.

And the Taliban have attempted to emerge as the winning party.

“There is no doubt we have won the war, there is no doubt; otherwise the foreign forces (would not) have come to leave Afghanistan,” AFP quoted Abbas Stanikzai, a Taliban negotiator, as saying. Mr. Trump has even pledged to meet with Taliban leaders.

Despite the announcement of the deal, with much fanfare in the Qatari capital, serious questions remain as to the implementation of the agreement, especially in terms of how the Taliban’s activities would be monitored. Whether the Taliban will commit to talks with Kabul and how those talks would proceed will, too, remain to be seen. As such, the agreement remains a document that may have been hastily finalized by the US administration to be presented as a foreign policy achievement by Mr. Trump heading to the US presidential election.

Stay tuned to find all of that out!

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